Check if your retirement withdrawal rate is safe: your rate, historical success odds by stock/bond mix (Trinity study), and a safe yearly spend.
Return and inflation drive the projected balance; your stock/bond mix and horizon drive the historical success rate.
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A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the share of your retirement portfolio you can spend each year with strong confidence it will last. This calculator turns your portfolio and spending into a withdrawal rate, then shows the historical success rate for that rate — from the Trinity study — for your time horizon and stock/bond mix, plus a safe yearly spending amount.
Your safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of your starting portfolio you withdraw in year one, then adjust for inflation each year after. The famous '4% rule' comes from William Bengen (1994) and the Trinity study, which found a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal historically sustained a balanced portfolio for 30 years. The right rate for you depends on your horizon, your asset allocation, and how flexible your spending can be.
Safe Withdrawal Rate Formula
Confirm whether a classic 4% withdrawal is safe for your horizon and allocation.
Test 35–40+ year horizons, where a lower rate is usually needed.
See how a low-stock allocation lowers safe spending over long retirements.
Enter current spending to check whether your rate is drifting into risky territory.
See the historical odds your money lasts your full retirement — not just a single average-return guess.
Get a concrete safe yearly spending figure you can budget around.
The same 4% is far safer over 20 years than 40, and depends heavily on your stock/bond mix — this shows both.
A weak first decade hurts most; a data-grounded rate reflects that history instead of ignoring it.
It remains a solid starting guideline. It's based on U.S. market history and 30-year retirements with a balanced portfolio. For 40+ year (early) retirements, many planners use 3–3.5%; for shorter horizons, 4.5–5% can work. This calculator shows the historical success rate for your exact rate, horizon, and allocation so you don't have to rely on a single number.
Longer horizons need lower rates. Historically, a stock-heavy portfolio sustained roughly a 3.5–4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal over very long retirements, while bond-heavy portfolios needed less. Use the success grid to see the odds for your mix — the 30-year column is the longest the Trinity data covers, so treat it as optimistic for 40+ years.
A lot. Over 30 years a 50–75% stock allocation historically gave the highest success rates at 4–5% withdrawals, because stocks outpace inflation. Very bond-heavy portfolios look safe short-term but often failed over long retirements once inflation eroded them. Change the mix to watch the grid update.
A 1998 study (Cooley, Hubbard and Walz) that measured how often historical portfolios survived various inflation-adjusted withdrawal rates. The success rates here use Wade Pfau's update through 2017, using the S&P 500 and intermediate-term government bonds.
Yes — the 4% rule assumes it. You withdraw 4% of your starting balance in year one, then increase that dollar amount by inflation each year to keep your purchasing power. That is what the historical success rates here assume.
Subtract guaranteed income from your expenses first, and enter only the amount you need from your portfolio. For example, $60,000 of spending minus $25,000 of Social Security means $35,000 comes from the portfolio — that is the figure to enter here.